Thursday, September 15, 2011

Monetory review by RBI

Dr. Subbarao (RBI Governor) and Mr. Pranav Mukharjee (Fin Min) have been worried about it for quite some time. The extent of worry has amplified now.

  1. The inflation which has remained above comfort level of RBI and has refused to come down since last two years; is still hovering above 9%
  2. The India Growth Story seems to be have got brakes. The IIP numbers out in last few week for last quarter are to be worried out. The Industrial Production number has grown significantly lower.
Really a tough job for Mr. RBI Governor. He has been indicating increase in policy rates.

There is another angle to it now.  Despite, RBI has been selling US Dollars for last few days, the INR, Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against US Dollar ($). 1$ ~ INR 48. I believe, if Mr. Subbarao has to increase key policy rates (against the lobbying done by finance/banking community and business world); the depreciation of Rupee will act as an supportive case for him.

Increased prices of crude oil is surely a worry for India. Depreciated INR is even more worrisome.